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"Переболел легко, но хотел бы предостеречь друзей от ошибки восприятия, которую легко совершить. То, что мы видим сейчас в ленте среди знакомых большое количество легких случаев, ни в коем случае не свидетельствует о том, что "вирус стал менее опасным". Постоянно слышу, что весной вирус был гораздо опаснее, так как при меньшем количестве случаев вокруг было больше тяжёлых и смертельных. Сейчас такое впечатление, что "болеют все", а трагедий относительно не так много", - пишет в Facebook президент ACI Russia - The Financial Markets Association.

"Однако этот "эффект наблюдателя" можно легко объяснить без гипотезы о снижении вредоносности вируса.

Весной возможности тестирования были гораздо меньше, чем сейчас. Наверняка подавляющее количество легких случаев друзьями даже не было распознано, ну простуда да и все. Сейчас определить, что у тебя именно корона - гораздо легче.

Но и это не все. Весной каждая смерть становилась событием: мы узнавали о ней, даже если это было не первое, а второе-третье рукопожатие. Сейчас же количество случаев непосредственно среди самых близких больше в абсолютном значении, и они для нас они важнее. В результате большинство случаев, о которых мы знаем, сместилось ближе к нам, это уже "одно рукопожатие", ну и конечно, так как большинство случаев - легкие, у нас складывается впечатление, что ковид "полегчал". Раньше мы видели "дальше, но крупные звезды", сейчас - "близко, но не так ярко".

Таким образом, без методически правильно выверенной статистики судить о том, что происходит с опасностью коровируса - невозможно. Рекомендую не особенно полагаться на удачу в этом вопросе и максимально беречься".

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